Title:	Essays on Currency Internationalization and Exchange Rate Regime Choice - Empirical Evidence from Asia and Europe
Authors:	Grimm, Louisa
ORCID of the author:	https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7911-9351
Thesis advisor:	Prof. Frank Westermann, Ph.D.
Thesis referee:	Prof. Dr. Valeriya Dinger
Abstract:	This dissertation is a collection of three essays on the internationalization of currencies and the choice of exchange rate regimes, focusing on the Chinese renminbi (RMB) and the euro. It adds to the literature with empirical results, institutional analyses, and methodological elaborations. The first part of the study, we investigate the evolution of offshore RMB trading between 2016 and 2019. We find some convergence with the geographical distribution pattern of major currencies in international financial markets, but it is strongly influenced by (geopolitical) disputes and trading intensity. In addition, during the period under consideration, policy measures and the characteristics of financial centers played a role in shaping the offshore RMB trading pattern. The analysis is also conducted for the euro and reveals evidence for convergence in the first years after its introduction. The determinants of euro trading are not stable over time but include links between the eurozone and offshore trading centers and the economic and institutional characteristics of these centers. The second part incorporates two essays on exchange rate regime choice. A key policy criterion identified in the literature to evaluate optimal currency areas is the co-movement of business cycle shocks. However, we show that a currency area is optimal and a common monetary policy is suitable for all members only if, in addition, there is also a common impulse response pattern over time. The serial correlation common features test is the appropriate testing procedure for this, and we provide a theoretical underpinning for empirical studies that have used this test to evaluate common currency areas. In our empirical analysis, we account for seasonality in GDP data and jointly model common cycles and common seasonal factors. First, we consider countries potentially acceding to the European Monetary Union and find no evidence for a common cyclical reaction pattern with the euro area aggregate, except for Sweden. Second, we contribute to the literature discussing various types of new currency arrangements around the RMB, up to and including fixed exchange rates in an RMB currency bloc. The background is that the RMB increasingly challenges the dominant role of the U.S. dollar in the East Asian region, and relations with China are becoming closer. Despite these conditions, the results do not reveal common synchronous cycles, but show few common cyclical elements for Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, which is in contrast to previous studies.
URL:	https://doi.org/10.48693/449 https://osnadocs.ub.uni-osnabrueck.de/handle/ds-2024011710242
Subject Keywords:	FX turnover; Geographical trading pattern; Renminbi internationalization; Dispute; Trade intensity; Codependent business cycles; Serial correlation common feature; European monetary integration; Seasonality; Optimum currency area; Exchange rate regime choice
Issue Date:	17-Jan-2024
Type of publication:	Dissertation oder Habilitation [doctoralThesis]
Appears in Collections:	FB09 - E-Dissertationen

Items in osnaDocs repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated. rightsstatements.org